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The purpose of the USFS Pacific Northwest Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (PNRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the Region. Such information supports regional fuel management planning decisions, as well as revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative analysis of assets and resources and how they would be potentially impacted by wildfire. The PNRA analysis considers several different components, each resolved spatially across the region, including:
• likelihood of a fire burning, • the intensity of a fire if one should occur,
• the exposure of assets and resources based on their locations, and • the susceptibility of those assets and resources to wildfire FSim – Large-wildfire simulation system
FSim is a comprehensive fire occurrence, growth, behavior, and suppression simulation system that uses locally relevant fuel, weather, topography, and historical fire occurrence information to generate spatially resolved estimates of the contemporary likelihood and intensity of wildfire events (Finney and others 2011). FSim generates stochastic simulation data based on many thousands of iterations, then integrates those iterations into a probabilistic result. An FSim iteration spans one entire year. Due to the highly varied nature of weather and fire occurrence across the Pacific Northwest Region, we divided the landscape into twenty-three Fire Occurrence Areas (FOA). FOA boundaries were generated using elevation-based ecozones, aggregated where appropriate for fire modeling purposes. For consistency with other FSim projects, we numbered these FOAs 401 through 423. Each FOA was simulated independently with a minimum of 10,000 iterations, and then the 23 runs were compiled into a single data product. For each FOA, we parameterized and calibrated FSim based on the location of historical fire ignitions within the FOA, which is consistent with how the historical record is compiled. We... |
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The purpose of the USFS Pacific Northwest Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (PNRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the Region. Such information supports regional fuel management planning decisions, as well as revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative analysis of assets and resources and how they would be potentially impacted by wildfire. The PNRA analysis considers several different components, each resolved spatially across the region, including:
• likelihood of a fire burning, • the intensity of a fire if one should occur,
• the exposure of assets and resources based on their locations, and • the susceptibility of those assets and resources to wildfire FSim – Large-wildfire simulation system
FSim is a comprehensive fire occurrence, growth, behavior, and suppression simulation system that uses locally relevant fuel, weather, topography, and historical fire occurrence information to generate spatially resolved estimates of the contemporary likelihood and intensity of wildfire events (Finney and others 2011). FSim generates stochastic simulation data based on many thousands of iterations, then integrates those iterations into a probabilistic result. An FSim iteration spans one entire year. Due to the highly varied nature of weather and fire occurrence across the Pacific Northwest Region, we divided the landscape into twenty-three Fire Occurrence Areas (FOA). FOA boundaries were generated using elevation-based ecozones, aggregated where appropriate for fire modeling purposes. For consistency with other FSim projects, we numbered these FOAs 401 through 423. Each FOA was simulated independently with a minimum of 10,000 iterations, and then the 23 runs were compiled into a single data product. For each FOA, we parameterized and calibrated FSim based on the location of historical fire ignitions within the FOA, which is consistent with how the historical record is compiled. We... |
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Primary data contact: Rick Stratton (USFS) rdstratton@fs.fed.us
This dataset was developed for the USFS Pacific Northwest Region by Pyrologix LLC (www.pyrologix.com). |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P STYLE="margin:0 0 11 0;"><SPAN>This dataset is a 30-m cell size (downscaled from 120-m) raster representing annual burn probability across the project area. The individual-FOA BPs were integrated into this overall result for the project area using a natural-weighting method that Pyrologix developed on an earlier project and subsequently published (Thompson and others 2013; “Assessing Watershed-Wildfire Risks on National Forest System Lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States”). With this method, BP values for pixels well within the boundary of a FOA are influenced only by that FOA. Near the border with another FOA the results are influenced by that adjacent FOA. The weighting of each FOA is in proportion to its contribution to the overall BP at each pixel.</SPAN></P><P><SPAN /></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P><SPAN>The user must be aware of data conditions and must ultimately bear responsibility for the appropriate use of the information with respect to possible errors, possible omissions, map scale, data collection methodology, data currency, and other conditions specific to certain data.</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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Integrated Annual Burn Probability (iBP_30) |
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